There will be no need and no justification to complete the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion or the Keystone XL pipeline if Canada makes any effort at all to strengthen its climate policies, according to the more ambitious of two fossil demand scenarios in an analysis published yesterday by the Canada Energy Regulator (CER).
Early news reports yesterday focused on the main scenario in the CER’s annual Energy Futures report, which concluded that Trans Mountain, Keystone, and Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline will be the last three the country ever needs. The Globe and Mail had the report projecting a “hefty” 12% reduction in oil and gas consumption by 2030, rising to 35% by 2050, with renewable and nuclear energy growing 31% by mid-century.
“Under the status quo scenario, the regulator projects the three pipelines under construction — Keystone XL, Trans Mountain, and Enbridge Line 3—will be the last ones needed to handle future growth in crude oil production,” CP writes. “Under the evolving scenario, crude production still grows about 18% before peaking in 2039, but the report says Line 3 alone is enough added capacity to handle that increase.”
For more than a year, the Trudeau government has been promising a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050, beginning with a more ambitious carbon reduction target for 2030. One of the main criticisms of the federal climate accountability legislation released last week was that it didn’t include those details, but the general understanding before and since has been that the full plan is on the way.
