The
U.N. issued the reports on Wednesday and Thursday providing details on
the state of the planet. For years, scientists both in and outside of
the organization have warned with growing urgency that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to preindustrial times is critical to minimizing extreme temperatures and climate disasters.
But according to U.N. Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report, there is now “no credible pathway” remaining to make that happen.
“Loss and damage from the climate emergency is getting worse by the
day and global and national climate commitments are falling pitifully
short,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said.
“…Under current policies, the world is headed for 2.8 degrees of
global heating by the end of the century. In other words, we are headed
for a global catastrophe.”
The only way to change this trajectory is with “urgent
system-wide transformation,” the agency said — but as the U.N.’s other
reports show, such transformative changes are not on track.
On Wednesday, the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change issued its own report showing
that countries around the world are currently on a path to increase
greenhouse gas emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.
While that is an improvement from last year’s assessment — which
projected an increase of 13.7% — it is still far more than the
environment can handle.
The more greenhouse gases there are in
the atmosphere —particularly carbon dioxide and methane — the more the
sun’s radiation is trapped in the planet and the Earth warms. The report
warns that nations’ efforts to reduce emissions are still
“insufficient” to minimize global warming.
Even if all 193
parties who signed on to the Paris Climate Agreement fulfill their
current commitments, the world is still looking at roughly 2.5 degree
Celsius of temperature rise by 2100.
“This year’s analysis shows
that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, they are still
not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary
this decade,” the report said, adding that the agency found earlier this
year that greenhouse gas emissions would need to be cut by 43% by 2030
to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.