According to this analysis, for Canada to do its fair share to avoid 1.5°C of warming, our emissions would need to decrease 96-99 percent below current levels by the year 2030. This sharp drop may look shocking, but it is no surprise to climate experts. The world has already warmed by over 1°C and there is little time left to prevent the additional 0.5°C. Avoiding 1.5°C of global warming is mathematically possible, but not at all realistic without the development and rapid deployment of technologies to pull CO2 out of the air.

The New Democratic Party’s proposed targets for 2030 (38 percent reduction below 2005 levels) and those of the Green Party (60 percent reduction below 2005 levels) are more stringent than the current federal target, with the Green Party’s target closest to being consistent with a 2°C trajectory.