Alberta Premier Jason Kenney announced his recovery plan for the province last Monday. He says it’s bold and ambitious but it includes doubling down on fossil fuel development, money for infrastructure and jobs, as well as lowering the tax rate for corporate businesses. He has also promised to put $500 million into health care. Perhaps he’s going in circles — he just got through trashing health care in the province. He and others have already proven that lowering the tax rate doesn’t create jobs, but in the same tired rhetoric of old, he promised 50,000 new jobs. If this all seems a little incredible, that’s because it is.

Setting tax rates like they were twenty years ago isn’t going to work. You can’t shift all the burden to the working class when a lot of them are either looking for work, or working a job that only pays half of what it used to. There have been a lot of personal bankruptcies over the last few years and people have lost their jobs, families and homes. Staggering into a hotel drunk and throwing money on the floor while screaming at people to get to work isn’t any good. Trying to prevent all the creeps and bums from coming to Alberta to drain its’ resources can’t be solved by buying these folks a one-way ticket to British Columbia. Waiting for the next oil boom to kick in, isn’t the long term plan we need for this province.

There was a downturn of oil in the 90’s. Premier Ralph Klein worked with the federal government to devise ways to make the industry more viable. He never once inferred he was going to set up shop in Ottawa and wait for the government to notice him. He wasn’t waiting for the government to give him some money so he would get out of town. When he stepped down in 2006, one of the reasons was the party’s concern that Albertans were not getting enough money for their resources. Greed had taken over.

Some could argue the party hasn’t changed much except that some of its wealth is coming from cutting health care, firing nurses and teachers’ aids, plus making it harder for anyone smarter than him to get an education in the province. That’s a shame. It isn’t oil that’s going to save the province.

Bankruptcies rose by 50% this year over last year in Canada and the United States. In Canada there have been a lot. Here is a partial list:

• Cequence Energy Ltd. (June 11, 2020)
• Bow River Energy Ltd. (June 1, 2020)
• Q’Max Solutions Inc. (May 28, 2020)
• Delphi Energy (TSX:DEE) (April 14, 2020)
• Direct Oil & Gas Inc. (February 28, 2020)
• Strategic Oil & Gas (TSX-V: SOG) (Jan 28, 2020)
• Traverse Energy (TSX-V: TVL) (December 6, 2019)
• Accel Canada (November 22, 2019)
• Eagle Energy (TSX-V: EGL) (November 19, 2019)
• plus many, many more.

There could be more in the near future. Here’s a list, of all companies that have been granted protection under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) since 2009 in Canada. Currently it has 391 entries. With these lists of insolvency and those granted protection it makes it hard to believe the Alberta government is expecting most of it’s revenue, over the next three years, to come from oil and gas.

On April 14, 2020 the Rabble reported, “High production costs have stymied bitumen expansion for now, and probably as long at it takes for the world to run down known conventional oil and gas reserves, which could be as much as 50 years.

“On a recent visit to Washington, Kenney lashed out at U.S. Democratic party presidential hopefuls for favouring oil imports from Middle Eastern dictatorships, and blocking pipeline access to the U.S. from Canada, its liberal democratic neighbour and long-time ally.
“No amount of name calling and finger pointing by Jason Kenney will make bitumen production competitive against low-cost producers determined to price competitors out of the market. That low pricing was a business decision, made in a competitive market.”

Joe Biden’s campaign promised to put an end to Keystone XL. Mr. Kenny might as well have kept his finger at home or found another use for it.

A change is coming

Three of the world’s biggest oil and gas companies are planning to become net-zero carbon emitters by 2050. And, as Energy Intelligence noted recently in an industry analysis, there are only two ways to attain the net-zero state: reduce the production of oil and gas, and capture the already emitted carbon dioxide.

When three of the biggest oil and gas companies see the change coming the Alberta government doesn’t see, the future looks worrisome. It’s already causing some uneasiness in certain sectors, including the Canadian banks that are still investing in the industry.